The Looming Pilot Shortage: Reality . . . or Not?

            There are many reasons that people in the industry are saying there will be a catastrophic pilot shortage. One being the fact that many older pilots that got their retirement extended from the age of 60 to age 65 are beginning to retire now. "Major airlines, including Delta and United, are beginning to hire pilots for the first time in several years, and they will look to the upper ranks of regional airlines to fill a large number of the positions. (Schaal, 2013)" This will force them to pull pilots up from regional airlines to fill those seats. After losing much of their workforce, the regional airlines, who are now dealing with new regulation that requires higher minimums to hire new first officers, will need to recruit more pilots from flight schools around the country. According to some, this demand of fresh pilots will develop into a full blown pilot shortage that will rock the industry. To a pilot earning new ratings and building flight time at a flight school, a pilot shortage is music to their ears. This means that when they meet the qualifications, they will be swept up immediately by a regional airline that is lucky to have them. This however seemingly excellent situation may actually prove to be a harmful turn for pilots. If the airlines are unable to recruit enough pilots to fill their slots, they will be forced to either buy bigger planes or even cut routes in order to reduce their demand for pilots. "We've already heard of a few airlines that have either reduced their operations or even grounded their airplanes because they don't have enough people to fly them. ("Pilot shortage in Asia - PPRuNe Forums," 2011)" In the end, this may reduce the need for pilots across the entire industry, this is one possible drawback to this pilot shortage. I personally think that we will have a pilot shortage, but I do not believe it will have this detrimental effect on pilots. I think that we will have a great opportunity as commercial pilots moving up towards the airlines, when we meet the legal minimums, we will have our pick of whatever regional airline we want.

            Another cause of this pilot shortage is of an international nature, many Asian countries are currently going through a type of industrial revolution. "The rising middle class in China means millions more people are taking to the skies. Beijing plans soon to allow even more growth in its tightly controlled sector by encouraging the development of budget airlines, which are already booming across Asia. (NG, 2013)" This means that there are many citizens that will be wanting to travel with their new found wealth on airlines. "The largest projected growth in pilot demand is in the Asia Pacific region, with a requirement for 192,300 new pilots over the next 20 years. ("Long-Term Market," n.d.) " This new demand for pilots in the region will require Asian airlines to hire a lot of pilots that they do not have. If they cannot hire enough pilots from their own countries, they will have to hire American pilots to fulfill these positions. I believe that this will lead to a few changes in the industry, the Asian airlines will offer great deals to persuade American pilots to fly for them which will consecutively create an even bigger pilot shortage in America. This should in turn force Airlines in the United States to compete with Asian airline pay rates which should greatly increase with the need for more pilots.

           

Long-Term Market. (n.d.). Boeing: Pilot & Technician Outlook. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/cmo/pilot_technician_outlook.page

NG, J. (2013, August 23). Chinese Airlines Lure Pilots With Double the Pay of U.S. Captains; Carriers Boost Salaries to Hire Seasoned Crews, Causing Shortage Across Asia. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323455104579012194041354578.html

Pilot shortage in Asia - PPRuNe Forums. (2011, December 1). Business Insider. Retrieved September 21, 2013, from http://www.businessinsider.com/asian-pilot-shortage-2011-12

Schaal, D. (2013, August 29). Regional Airlines’ Pilot Shortage is Heading Toward the Perfect Storm. Skift. Retrieved September 21, 2013, from http://skift.com/2013/08/29/regional-airlines-pilot-shortage-is-heading-toward-the-perfect-storm/